The assurance networks application for risk modeling of enterprises’ innovation activity

Abstract

An example of modeling risk-contributing factors which introduce uncertainties into the innovative activity of enterprise has been discussed. The simulation method has been developed on the base of the classical theory of probability (probabilistic inference). In order to estimate the interdependent risk-contributing factors we use a simply connected tree-like network of assurance which allows modeling uncertain situations taking into account the stochastic relations which arise among situations. The obtained results of estimation of the network increasing vertices lead to a conclusion on high probability of the satisfactory condition of the innovative product orders portfolio.